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Journal for Labour Market Research

Table 5 Nowcast evaluation: alternative leading indicators

From: A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany

Horizon

\(t_{-1}\)

\(t_{0}\)

Unemployment

 MAPE

29,963

33,008

 MSPE (bn)

1.366

1.680

 RMSPE

36,956

40,988

Vacancies

 MAPE

30,056

33,002

 MSPE (bn)

1.319

1.624

 RMSPE

36,313

40,304

Industrial production

 MAPE

29,650

31,687

 MSPE (bn)

1.346

1.603

 RMSPE

36,687

40,032

  1. The table compares the nowcasting performance of alternative candidate variables
  2. MAPE mean absolute prediction error, MSPE: mean squared prediction error, RMSPE root mean squared prediction error
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