Table 4 Nowcast evaluation for different subperiods
From: A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany
Subperiod | 2015m1–2018m12 | 2016m1–2018m12 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Horizon | \(t_{-1}\) | \(t_{0}\) | \(t_{-1}\) | \(t_{0}\) |
Benchmark model | ||||
 MAPE | 30,025 | 32,398 | 24,886 | 28,037 |
 MSPE (bn) | 1.435 | 1.806 | 0.946 | 1.240 |
 RMSPE | 37,880 | 42,492 | 30,755 | 35,207 |
Enhanced model | ||||
 MAPE | 25,106 | 28,633 | 19,236 | 23,695 |
 MSPE (bn) | 1.146 | 1.520 | 0.659 | 1.014 |
 RMSPE | 33,859 | 38,991 | 25,669 | 31,840 |
Model comparison | ||||
 \(\Delta _{adj} (bn)\) | 0.536 | 0.887 | 0.562 | 0.931 |
 CW-statistic | \(2.65^{***}\) | \(2.81^{***}\) | \(2.51^{***}\) | \(2.49^{***}\) |