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Journal for Labour Market Research

Table 3 Nowcast evaluation for employees subject to SSC

From: A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany

Horizon

\(t_{-1}\)

\(t_{0}\)

Benchmark model

 MAPE

30,101

32,109

 MSPE (bn)

1.392

1.772

 RMSPE

37,315

42,091

Enhanced model

 MAPE

25,329

27,365

 MSPE (bn)

1.119

1.407

 RMSPE

33,459

37,512

Model comparison

 \(\Delta _{adj}\) (bn)

0.536

0.969

 CW-statistic

\(3.05^{***}\)

\(2.99^{***}\)

  1. The table compares the nowcasting performance of the benchmark model (Eq. (3)) and the enhanced model (Eq. (4)) for two horizons: \(t_{-1}\) and \(t_{0}\). MAPE: mean absolute prediction error. MSPE: mean squared prediction error. RMSPE: root mean squared prediction error. \(\Delta _{adj}\) denotes the adjusted difference between the MSPEs of the two models. Unit of MSPE and \(\Delta _{adj}\): billion. CW-statistic is the value of the test statistic following Clark and West (2007). \(^{***}\) means the null hypothesis of equal predictive accuracy is rejected at the 1% significance level
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