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Table 1 Job Duration Models for West Germany

From: The evolution of job stability and wages after the implementation of the Hartz reformsDie Entwicklung von Beschäftigungsstabilität und Löhnen seit Einführung der Hartz-Reformen

  Job duration
Men Women
Hazard ratio za Hazard ratio za
Duration b
0–31 days 0.802 −171.5 0.936 −197.6
32–61 days 0.923 −190.9 0.988 −195.5
62–91 days 0.905 −198.2 0.893 −194.9
92–122 days 1.039 −192.8 1.036 −205.7
123–183 days 0.906 −186.5 0.878 −223.8
184–365 days 0.877 −190.9 0.793 −232.9
366–548 days 0.733 −173.2 0.676 −229.0
549–730 days 0.728 −162.5 0.652 −203.9
Year of entry (ref: 1998–2002)
2003–2005 0.897 −9.2 0.916 −7.2
2006–2008 0.984 −1.2 0.959 −3.6
Quarter of entry (ref: 1st quarter)
2nd quarter 1.320 21.0 1.212 14.4
3rd quarter 1.333 21.2 1.184 12.3
4th quarter 1.364 21.3 1.238 15.8
Local labour demand (district level)
Unemployment rate 1.002 0.8 1.000 −0.1
GDP growth 0.999 −0.7 0.998 −1.7
Federal state (ref: North Rhine-Westphalia)
Schleswig Holstein, Hamburg 1.060 2.5 1.032 1.2
Lower Saxony, Bremen 1.033 1.4 0.989 −0.6
Hesse 0.963 −2.0 0.945 −3.1
Rhineland Palatinate, Saarland 1.050 2.1 0.961 −1.3
Baden-Württemberg 0.930 −3.2 0.904 −4.8
Bavaria 1.000 0.0 0.932 −3.4
Firm size (ref: <20 employees)
20–49 0.813 −14.5 0.966 −2.3
50–249 0.680 −28.8 0.914 −6.6
250–999 0.538 −31.9 0.779 −13.3
1000 and more 0.460 −19.4 0.659 −13.8
Industry (ref: business services)
Agriculture, mining 2.089 14.6 2.337 9.3
Energy, traffic and information 1.098 3.0 1.017 0.7
Manufacturing 0.751 −11.7 0.918 −4.5
Construction 1.175 6.0 0.849 −4.2
Trade and retail 0.895 −4.4 1.011 0.6
Personal and domestic services 1.389 9.4 1.374 14.9
Social and public services 0.980 −0.9 0.828 −10.5
Temporary work agency 4.302 38.9 4.251 40.5
Foreigner 1.682 32.8 1.438 18.5
Age (ref: 30–34)
Age 25–29 1.121 8.2 1.208 12.4
Age 35–39 0.955 −3.4 0.856 −11.1
Age 40–44 0.911 −6.0 0.820 −11.6
Age 45–49 0.895 −6.1 0.824 −10.6
Age 50–54 0.908 −5.8 0.828 −10.2
Skill Level (ref: vocational training with at most an intermediate degree)
Missing information on educational level 1.875 18.6 1.696 17.1
No vocational training with at most an intermediate degree 1.254 12.7 1.294 14.9
High school/equivalent; with or without vocational training 1.076 4.3 1.002 0.1
University/technical/professional college degree 0.823 −11.2 1.036 2.5
Preceding state (ref: job-to-job)
First spell 1.035 1.9 1.085 4.9
Unemployed 1.995 45.1 1.748 33.6
Job followed by gap 1.708 31.6 1.503 28.7
Unemployment followed by gap 1.205 10.9 1.217 12.6
Part-time (min. 18 h/week) 1.407 11.9 0.954 −3.2
Variance of frailty term (log θ) −0.394 −8.5 −0.852 −8.8
LR – test for significance of θ 1100.9 223.6
Wald chi 2 1,558,412 1,255,807
Log likelihood −218,031 −173,214
Number of obs. 180,546 142,335
  1. aThe standard errors are adjusted for 325 regional clusters using a separate model with a non-individual-specific frailty term
  2. bThe hazard ratios of the duration time pieces are multiplied by 1000 in order to obtain legible values
  3. Source: IEB, Federal Statistical Office, own calculations