Table 1 Job Duration Models for West Germany

Duration ^b

0–31 days

0.802

−171.5

0.936

−197.6

32–61 days

0.923

−190.9

0.988

−195.5

62–91 days

0.905

−198.2

0.893

−194.9

92–122 days

1.039

−192.8

1.036

−205.7

123–183 days

0.906

−186.5

0.878

−223.8

184–365 days

0.877

−190.9

0.793

−232.9

366–548 days

0.733

−173.2

0.676

−229.0

549–730 days

0.728

−162.5

0.652

−203.9

Year of entry (ref: 1998–2002)

2003–2005

0.897

−9.2

0.916

−7.2

2006–2008

0.984

−1.2

0.959

−3.6

Quarter of entry (ref: 1st quarter)

2nd quarter

1.320

21.0

1.212

14.4

3rd quarter

1.333

21.2

1.184

12.3

4th quarter

1.364

21.3

1.238

15.8

Local labour demand (district level)

Unemployment rate

1.002

0.8

1.000

−0.1

GDP growth

0.999

−0.7

0.998

−1.7

Federal state (ref: North Rhine-Westphalia)

Schleswig Holstein, Hamburg

1.060

2.5

1.032

1.2

Lower Saxony, Bremen

1.033

1.4

0.989

−0.6

Hesse

0.963

−2.0

0.945

−3.1

Rhineland Palatinate, Saarland

1.050

2.1

0.961

−1.3

Baden-Württemberg

0.930

−3.2

0.904

−4.8

Bavaria

1.000

0.0

0.932

−3.4

Firm size (ref: <20 employees)

20–49

0.813

−14.5

0.966

−2.3

50–249

0.680

−28.8

0.914

−6.6

250–999

0.538

−31.9

0.779

−13.3

1000 and more

0.460

−19.4

0.659

−13.8

Industry (ref: business services)

Agriculture, mining

2.089

14.6

2.337

9.3

Energy, traffic and information

1.098

3.0

1.017

0.7

Manufacturing

0.751

−11.7

0.918

−4.5

Construction

1.175

6.0

0.849

−4.2

Trade and retail

0.895

−4.4

1.011

0.6

Personal and domestic services

1.389

9.4

1.374

14.9

Social and public services

0.980

−0.9

0.828

−10.5

Temporary work agency

4.302

38.9

4.251

40.5

Foreigner

1.682

32.8

1.438

18.5

Age (ref: 30–34)

Age 25–29

1.121

8.2

1.208

12.4

Age 35–39

0.955

−3.4

0.856

−11.1

Age 40–44

0.911

−6.0

0.820

−11.6

Age 45–49

0.895

−6.1

0.824

−10.6

Age 50–54

0.908

−5.8

0.828

−10.2

Skill Level (ref: vocational training with at most an intermediate degree)

Missing information on educational level

1.875

18.6

1.696

17.1

No vocational training with at most an intermediate degree

1.254

12.7

1.294

14.9

High school/equivalent; with or without vocational training

1.076

4.3

1.002

0.1

University/technical/professional college degree

0.823

−11.2

1.036

2.5

Preceding state (ref: job-to-job)

First spell

1.035

1.9

1.085

4.9

Unemployed

1.995

45.1

1.748

33.6

Job followed by gap

1.708

31.6

1.503

28.7

Unemployment followed by gap

1.205

10.9

1.217

12.6

Part-time (min. 18 h/week)

1.407

11.9

0.954

−3.2

Variance of frailty term (log θ)

−0.394

−8.5

−0.852

−8.8

LR – test for significance of θ

1100.9

–

223.6

–

Wald chi ²

1,558,412

–

1,255,807

–

Log likelihood

−218,031

–

−173,214

–

Number of obs.

180,546

–

142,335

–