Table 6 Upward mobility of multi-year low-wage workers in 2003 including interaction effects; probit estimations with sample selection; marginal effects

Upward mobility equation

Female (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.129^∗∗∗

–

–

(0.023)

Age 15–24 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.213^∗∗∗

0.203^∗∗∗

0.231^∗∗∗

(0.014)

(0.016)

(0.029)

Age 25–34 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.098^∗∗∗

0.086^∗∗∗

0.130^∗∗∗

(0.010)

(0.012)

(0.020)

Age 50–57 (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.063^∗∗∗

−0.055^∗∗∗

−0.073^∗∗

(0.011)

(0.011)

(0.029)

School leaving certificate without vocational training (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.041^∗∗∗

−0.037^∗∗∗

−0.043^∗∗

(0.010)

(0.011)

(0.021)

High school certificate with vocational training (1 \( = \) yes)

0.061^∗

0.043

0.162^∗∗

(0.033)

(0.033)

(0.082)

University degree (1 \( = \) yes)

0.026

0.046

−0.018

(0.042)

(0.046)

(0.095)

Education unknown (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.017

−0.018

−0.008

(0.011)

(0.012)

(0.024)

Foreigner (1 \( = \) yes)

0.020

0.018

0.019

(0.021)

(0.026)

(0.039)

Unskilled manual occupations (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.051^∗∗∗

−0.040^∗∗∗

−0.075^∗

(0.014)

(0.014)

(0.042)

Skilled manual occupations (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.066^∗∗∗

−0.078^∗∗∗

−0.074^∗

(0.013)

(0.015)

(0.040)

Unskilled services (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.097^∗∗∗

−0.089^∗∗∗

−0.129^∗∗∗

(0.012)

(0.012)

(0.040)

Skilled services (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.072^∗∗∗

−0.071^∗∗∗

−0.120^∗

(0.017)

(0.016)

(0.071)

Unskilled commercial and administrative occupations (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.089^∗∗∗

−0.072^∗∗∗

−0.133^∗∗∗

(0.012)

(0.011)

(0.048)

Semi-professions (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.038

−0.049^∗∗

0.116

(0.026)

(0.022)

(0.118)

21–100 employees (1 \( = \) yes)

0.010

0.014

2.10E-04

(0.012)

(0.012)

(0.030)

101–500 employees (1 \( = \) yes)

0.043^∗∗∗

0.050^∗∗∗

0.021

(0.016)

(0.017)

(0.037)

More than 500 employees (1 \( = \) yes)

0.104^∗∗∗

0.095^∗∗∗

0.195^∗∗

(0.030)

(0.032)

(0.079)

Percentage of women

−6.49E-05

−9.53E-05

−5.10E-05

(2.61E-04)

(2.13E-04)

(3.79E-04)

Percentage of highly-qualified workers

1.61E-04

1.60E-04

1.57E-04

(3.04E-04)

(3.15E-03)

(7.55E-04)

Percentage of workers aged 15–24

1.47E-04

1.42E-04

5.19E-07

(2.58E-04)

(2.73E-04)

6.00E-04

Percentage of workers aged 25–34

8.55E-07

1.86E-04

−5.40E-04

(2.37E-04)

(2.55E-04)

5.27E-04

Percentage of workers older than 49

−2.93E-05

−1.85E-04

5.00E-04

(2.73E-04)

(2.91E-04)

(6.29E-04)

Percentage of low-wage workers

−1.93E-03^∗∗∗

−1.59E-03^∗∗∗

−2.97E-03^∗∗∗

(2.21E-04)

(2.28E-04)

(5.51E-04)

Percentage of foreign workers

7.15E-04^∗∗

9.98E-04^∗∗

1.40E-04

(3.48E-04)

(3.96E-04)

(7.07E-04)

Plant located in eastern Germany (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.011

0.006

−0.051^∗∗∗

(0.009)

(0.010)

(0.020)

Female × percentage of women

−2,94E-05

–

–

(3,32E-04)

Foreigner × percentage of foreigners

−0.001

−0.001

−2.44E-04

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

Change of plant (1 \( = \) yes)

0.082^∗∗∗

0.109^∗∗∗

−0.005

(0.019)

(0.021)

(0.047)

21–100 employees × change of plant (1 \( = \) yes)

0.002

−0.028

0.073^∗

(0.017)

(0.018)

(0.039)

101–500 employees × change of plant (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.002

−0.013

0.045

(0.021)

(0.024)

(0.046)

More than 500 employees × change of plant (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.081^∗∗

−0.079^∗

−0.145

(0.038)

(0.047)

(0.091)

Percentage of low-paid workers × change of plant (1 \( = \) yes)

0.002^∗∗∗

0.001^∗∗∗

0.004^∗∗∗

(2.37E-04)

(2.58E-04)

(5.5E-04)

Change of occupation type (1 \( = \) yes)

0.015

0.020

−0.014

(0.025)

(0.025)

(0.076)

Unskilled manual occupation × change of occupation type (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.003

0.024

0.003

(0.031)

(0.037)

(0.084)

Skilled manual occupation × change of occupation type (1 \( = \) yes)

0.057

0.007

0.123

(0.036)

(0.041)

(0.088)

Unskilled services × change of occupation type (1 \( = \) yes)

0.121^∗∗∗

0.114^∗∗∗

0.164^∗

(0.038)

(0.043)

(0.089)

Skilled services × change of occupation type (1 \( = \) yes)

0.241^∗∗∗

0.219^∗∗∗

0.496^∗∗∗

(0.052)

(0.053)

(0.126)

Unskilled comm. and admin. occ. × change of occupation type (1 \( = \) yes)

0.139^∗∗∗

0.129^∗∗∗

0.181

(0.042)

(0.043)

(0.115)

Semi-professions × change of occupation type (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.014

0.017

−0.173

(0.061)

(0.066)

(0.122)

Number of observations

16,133

11,789

4,344

Selection equation

Regional unemployment rate in June 1997

0.001

−0.001

0.004^∗∗∗

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

Low-wage employment in 1997 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.433^∗∗∗

0.453^∗∗∗

0.381^∗∗∗

(0.004)

(0.005)

(0.007)

Years of work experience between 1993–1997

−0.062^∗∗∗

−0.064^∗∗∗

−0.054^∗∗∗

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.003)

Part-time/marginal employed in 1997 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.310^∗∗∗

0.335^∗∗∗

0.242^∗∗∗

(0.010)

(0.010)

(0.021)

Number of observations

236,750

88,588

148,162

ρ(correlation of the error terms)

0.169^∗∗∗

0.120^∗∗∗

0.242^∗∗∗

Significance of the model

χ2 (55) \( = \) 2002.0^∗∗∗

χ2 (53) \( = \) 1241.3^∗∗∗

χ2 (53) \( = \) 714.0^∗∗∗

Joint significance of variable groups

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗∗∗, type of occupation^∗∗∗, plant size^∗∗∗, age composition of workers in the plant n.s., industry^∗∗∗, plant size × change of plant n.s., occupation type × change of occupation type^∗∗∗

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗∗∗, type of occupation^∗∗∗, plant size^∗∗∗, age composition of workers in the plant n.s., industry^∗∗∗, plant size × change of plant n.s., occupation type × change of occupation type^∗∗∗

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗, type of occupation^∗∗, plant size^∗, age composition of workers in the plant n.s., industry n.s., plant size × change of plant^∗∗, occupation type × change of occupation type^∗∗∗