Table 5 Upward mobility of multi-year low-wage workers in 2003 by gender; probit estimations with sample selection; marginal effects

Upward mobility equation

Age 15–24 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.126^∗∗∗

0.180^∗∗∗

0.202^∗∗∗

0.219^∗∗∗

(0.010)

(0.021)

(0.016)

(0.029)

Age 25–34 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.042^∗∗∗

0.112^∗∗∗

0.085^∗∗∗

0.129^∗∗∗

(0.007)

(0.014)

(0.012)

(0.020)

Age 50–57 (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.059^∗∗∗

−0.075^∗∗∗

−0.054^∗∗∗

−0.072^∗∗

(0.006)

(0.017)

(0.011)

(0.029)

School leaving certificate without vocational training (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.025^∗∗∗

−0.030^∗∗

−0.036^∗∗∗

−0.040^∗

(0.006)

(0.013)

(0.011)

(0.021)

High school certificate with vocational training (1 \( = \) yes)

0.020

0.100

0.041

0.154^∗

(0.020)

(0.063)

(0.033)

(0.079)

University degree (1 \( = \) yes)

0.026

0.013

0.032

−0.001

(0.030)

(0.067)

(0.045)

(0.094)

Education unknown (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.009

−0.007

−0.018

−0.008

(0.007)

(0.015)

(0.012)

(0.024)

Foreigner (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.020^∗∗

−0.025

−0.003

0.014

(0.010)

(0.018)

(0.019)

(0.029)

Unskilled manual occupations (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.026^∗∗∗

−0.039

−0.038^∗∗∗

−0.081^∗∗

(0.008)

(0.025)

(0.014)

(0.038)

Skilled manual occupations (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.049^∗∗∗

−0.014

−0.086^∗∗∗

−0.047

(0.008)

(0.024)

(0.013)

(0.037)

Unskilled services (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.045^∗∗∗

−0.051^∗∗

−0.077^∗∗∗

−0.095^∗∗∗

(0.007)

(0.024)

(0.011)

(0.036)

Skilled services (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.032^∗∗∗

−0.071^∗

−0.052^∗∗∗

−0.056

(0.010)

(0.038)

(0.016)

(0.068)

Unskilled commercial and administrative occupations (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.039^∗∗∗

−0.066^∗∗

−0.059^∗∗∗

−0.091^∗∗

(0.007)

(0.026)

(0.011)

(0.044)

Semi-professions (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.037^∗∗∗

0.031

−0.048^∗∗

0.037

(0.012)

(0.062)

(0.021)

(0.098)

Occupation type unknown (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.034

0.037

−0.057

0.050

(0.030)

(0.077)

(0.047)

(0.118)

21–100 employees (1 \( = \) yes)

0.006

0.031^∗∗

0.004

0.049^∗∗

(0.006)

(0.014)

(0.010)

(0.021)

101–500 employees (1 \( = \) yes)

0.021^∗∗

0.036^∗∗

0.047^∗∗∗

0.054^∗∗

(0.008)

(0.018)

(0.014)

(0.027)

More than 500 employees (1 \( = \) yes)

0.022

0.076^∗∗

0.076^∗∗∗

0.115^∗∗

(0.015)

(0.035)

(0.028)

(0.052)

Percentage of women

−1.03E-04

−1.17E-04

−1.06E-04

−1.57E-04

(1.26E-04)

(2.44E-04)

(2.14E-04)

(3.73E-04)

Percentage of highly-qualified workers

7.52E-05

−4.84E-04

1.79E-04

−7.52E-05

(1.92E-04)

(4.65E-04)

(3.18E-04)

(7.49E-04)

Percentage of workers aged 15–24

2.16E-04

3.43E-04

1.53E-04

1.06E-04

(1.65E-04)

(3.82E04)

(2.70E-04)

(5.89E-04)

Percentage of workers aged 25–34

2.50E-04

−3.11E-04

1.96E-04

−6.66E-04

(1.58E-04)

(3.41E-04)

(2.53E-04)

(5.15E-04)

Percentage of workers older than 49

−9.50E-05

−3.32E-05

−2.44E-04

1.49E-04

(1.80E-04)

(4.08E-04)

(2.89E-04)

(6.14E04)

Percentage of low-wage workers

−6,34E-04^∗∗∗

−5.78E-04^∗

−1.32E-03^∗∗∗

−9.35E-04^∗∗

(1.24E-04)

(3.19E-04)

(2.00E-04)

(4.57E-04)

Percentage of foreign workers

4.65E-04^∗∗

1.06E-05

7.43E-04^∗∗

1.74E-04

(1.92E-04)

(3.10E-04)

(3.18E-04)

(4.83E-04)

Plant located in eastern Germany (1 \( = \) yes)

0.007

−0.037^∗∗∗

0.003

−0.056^∗∗∗

(0.006)

(0.012)

(0.010)

(0.019)

Change of plants (1 \( = \) yes)

–

–

0.146^∗∗∗

0.300^∗∗∗

(0.008)

(0.018)

Change of occupation type (1 \( = \) yes)

–

–

0.103^∗∗∗

0.080^∗∗∗

(0.014)

(0.021)

Number of observations

19,621

6,968

11,821

4,360

Selection equation

Regional unemployment rate in June 1997

0.001

0.008^∗∗∗

−0.001

0.004^∗∗∗

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

Low-wage employment in 1997 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.599^∗∗∗

0.523^∗∗∗

0.453^∗∗∗

0.381^∗∗∗

(0.005)

(0.007)

(0.005)

(0.007)

Years of work experience between 1993–1997

−0.076^∗∗∗

−0.098^∗∗∗

−0.064^∗∗∗

−0.054^∗∗∗

(0.002)

(0.003)

(0.002)

(0.003)

Part-time/marginal employed in 1997 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.161^∗∗∗

0.219^∗∗∗

0.334^∗∗∗

0.243^∗∗∗

(0.003)

(0.014)

(0.010)

(0.021)

Number of observations

88,721

148,557

88,721

148,557

ρ(correlation of the error terms)

0.0312

0.138^∗∗∗

0.124^∗∗∗

0.217^∗∗∗

Significance of the model

χ2 (41) \( = \) 734.7^∗∗∗

χ2 (41) \( = \) 320.9^∗∗∗

χ2 (43) \( = \) 1212.6^∗∗∗

χ2 (41) \( = \) 659.4^∗∗∗

Joint significance of variable groups

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗∗∗, type of occupation^∗∗∗, plant size^∗, age composition of workers in the plant n.s., industry^∗∗∗

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗, type of occupation^∗∗, plant size^∗∗, age composition of workers in the plant n.s., industry^∗∗∗

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗∗∗, type of occupation^∗∗∗, plant size^∗∗∗, age composition of workers in the plant n.s., industry^∗∗∗

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗, type of occupation^∗, plant size^∗∗, age composition of workers in the plant n.s., industry n.s.