Table 4 Advancement of multi-year low-wage workers in 2000 and 2003; probit estimations with sample selection; marginal effects

Upward mobility equation

Female (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.053^∗∗∗

−0.111^∗∗∗

−0.059^∗∗∗

−0.123^∗∗∗

(0.006)

(0.009)

(0.007)

(0.013)

Age 15–24 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.062^∗∗∗

0.140^∗∗∗

0.055^∗∗∗

0.209^∗∗∗

(0.007)

(0.009)

(0.008)

(0.014)

Age 25–34 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.035^∗∗∗

0.060^∗∗∗

0.034^∗∗∗

0.098^∗∗∗

(0.005)

(0.006)

(0.005)

(0.010)

Age 50–57 (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.014^∗∗∗

−0.065^∗∗∗

−0.011^∗

−0.062^∗∗∗

(0.005)

(0.006)

(0.006)

(0.011)

School leaving certificate without vocational training (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.015^∗∗∗

−0.028^∗∗∗

−0.016^∗∗∗

−0.040^∗∗∗

(0.004)

(0.006)

(0.005)

(0.010)

High school certificate with vocational training (1 \( = \) yes)

0.038^∗∗

0.033

0.050^∗∗

0.063^∗

(0.017)

(0.021)

(0.020)

(0.033)

University degree (1 \( = \) yes)

0.014

0.023

0.021

0.019

(0.021)

(0.028)

(0.025)

(0.042)

Education unknown (1 \( = \) yes)

0.002

−0.009

0.003

−0.017

(0.005)

(0.007)

(0.006)

(0.011)

Foreigner (1 \( = \) yes)

0.011

−0.021^∗∗

0.016^∗

0.004

(0.007)

(0.008)

(0.008)

(0.016)

Unskilled manual occupations (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.014^∗∗

−0.033^∗∗∗

−0.025^∗∗∗

−0.056^∗∗∗

(0.006)

(0.008)

(0.006)

(0.013)

Skilled manual occupations (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.016^∗∗∗

−0.030^∗∗∗

−0.026^∗∗∗

−0.061^∗∗∗

(0.005)

(0.008)

(0.006)

(0.012)

Unskilled services (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.024^∗∗∗

−0.046^∗∗∗

−0.035^∗∗∗

−0.082^∗∗∗

(0.005)

(0.007)

(0.005)

(0.011)

Skilled services (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.024^∗∗∗

−0.031^∗∗∗

−0.031^∗∗∗

−0.050^∗∗∗

(0.007)

(0.010)

(0.008)

(0.017)

Unskilled commercial and administrative occupations (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.018^∗∗∗

−0.047^∗∗∗

−0.028^∗∗∗

−0.074^∗∗∗

(0.005)

(0.007)

(0.005)

(0.011)

Semi-professions (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.004

−0.033^∗∗

−0.003

−0.040

(0.012)

(0.014)

(0.013)

(0.024)

Occupation type unknown (1 \( = \) yes)

0.013

−0.017

−0.022

−0.029

(0.025)

(0.030)

(0.019)

(0.048)

21–100 employees (1 \( = \) yes)

0.013^∗∗∗

0.010^∗

0.011^∗∗

0.014

(0.004)

(0.006)

(0.005)

(0.009)

101–500 employees (1 \( = \) yes)

0.021^∗∗∗

0.023^∗∗∗

0.022^∗∗∗

0.049^∗∗∗

(0.006)

(0.008)

(0.007)

(0.013)

More than 500 employees (1 \( = \) yes)

0.013

0.031^∗∗

0.033^∗∗

0.086^∗∗∗

(0.010)

(0.014)

(0.014)

(0.025)

Percentage of women

−1.50E-04^∗∗

−7.59E-05

3.09E-05

−1.60E-04

(−7.31E-05)

(1.05E-04)

(8.66E-05)

(1.74E-04)

Percentage of highly-qualified workers

−9.54E-05

−7.03E-05

−6.02E-05

1.43E-04

(1.30E-04)

(1.84E-04)

(1.50E-04)

(3.08E-04)

Percentage of workers aged 15–24

3.21E-04^∗∗∗

2.90E-04^∗

2.99E-04^∗∗

1.85E-04

(1.12E-04)

(1.56E-04)

(1.33E-04)

(2.55E-04)

Percentage of workers aged 25–34

1.61E-04

1.14E-04

2.25E-04^∗

6.44E-06

(1.07E-04)

(1.47E-04)

(1.24E-04)

(2.35E-04)

Percentage of workers older than 49

−1.21E-04

−6.63E-05

−5.49E-07

−1.42E-04

(1.26E-04)

(1.69E-04)

(1.46E-04)

(2.70E-04)

Percentage of low-wage workers

−3.25E-04^∗∗∗

−6.53E-04^∗∗∗

−5.94E-04^∗∗∗

−1.23E-03^∗∗∗

(9.07E-05)

(1.18E-04)

(9.30E-05)

(1.86E04)

Percentage of foreign workers

−7.97E-05

2.63E-04^∗

−6.22E-05

5.06E-04^∗

1.11E-04

(1.57E-04)

(1.34E-04)

(2.59E-04)

Plant located in eastern Germany (1 \( = \) yes)

−0.006

−0.006

0.001

−0.014

(0.004)

(0.006)

(0.005)

(0.009)

Change of plants (1 \( = \) yes)

–

–

0.134^∗∗∗

0.188^∗∗∗

(0.005)

(0.008)

Change of occupation type (1 \( = \) yes)

–

–

0.050^∗∗∗

0.093^∗∗∗

(0.009)

(0.011)

Number of observations

26,589

26,589

21,858

16,181

Selection equation

Regional unemployment rate in June 1997

0.003^∗∗∗

0.003^∗∗∗

0.001

0.001

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

Low-wage employment in 1997 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.576^∗∗∗

0.578^∗∗∗

0.553^∗∗∗

0.434^∗∗∗

(0.004)

(0.004)

(0.004)

(0.004)

Years of work experience between 1993–1997

−0.083^∗∗∗

−0.084^∗∗∗

−0.075^∗∗∗

−0.062^∗∗∗

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.002)

(0.002)

Part-time/marginal employed in 1997 (1 \( = \) yes)

0.185^∗∗∗

0.188^∗∗∗

0.276^∗∗∗

0.309^∗∗∗

(0.004)

(0.004)

(0.006)

(0.010)

Number of observations

237,278

237,278

237,278

237,278

ρ (correlation of the error terms)

0.159^∗∗∗

0.0731^∗∗∗

0.187^∗∗∗

0.163^∗∗∗

Significance of model

χ2 (42) \( = \) 663.2^∗∗∗

χ2 (42) \( = \) 1232.8^∗∗∗

χ2 (44) \( = \) 1726.1^∗∗∗

χ2 (44) \( = \) 1954.1^∗∗∗

Joint significance of variable groups

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗∗∗, type of occupation^∗∗∗, firm size^∗∗∗, age composition of workers in the firm^∗∗∗, industry^∗∗∗

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗∗∗, type of occupation^∗∗∗, firm size^∗∗∗, age composition of workers in the firm n.s., industry^∗∗∗

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗∗∗, type of occupation^∗∗∗, firm size^∗∗∗, age composition of workers in the firm^∗∗, industry^∗∗∗

Age^∗∗∗, level of education^∗∗∗, type of occupation^∗∗∗, firm size^∗∗∗, age composition of workers in the firm n.s., industry^∗∗∗