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Table 5 Decomposition of the cyclical responses to the cyclical GDP shock (2009)

From: The German labor market response in the world recession – de-mystifying a miracleDie Reaktion des deutschen Arbeitsmarktes auf die Weltrezession – Entzauberung eines Wunders

  Growth rates Labor force equivalence (in 1,000 persons)
  Actual Trend Cycle Actual Trend Cycle
(1)    Real GDP −5.00 1.69 −6.69 2,014 680 2,693
(2)    Expected employment response −4.19 −1,689
(3)    Expected buffering (2)–(1) 2.49 1,004
(4)    Employment −0.28 0.32 −0.59 −112 128 −240
(5)    Actual buffering (4)–(1) 6.09 2,454
(6)    Unexpected buffering (5)–(3) 3.60 1,450
(7)    Working time −3.79 −0.33 −3.45 1,525 134 1,391
(8)    Thereof …       
(8)    … short-time work schemes −0.89 360
(10)  … overtime −0.71 285
(11)  … working time account balances −0.61 244
(12)  Productivity per hour −0.94 1.70 −2.64 377 −685 1,063
  1. Notes: The cyclical GDP shock is calculated from the actual GDP shock (−5%) minus the trend rate (1.7%); the expected buffering is computed from the regression in Table 2; source of the working-time components: IAB; note that these components are extrapolated from the values for the first three quarters of the year.