From: A cross-country study of skills and unemployment flows
Monthly unemployment | Out of steady state | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Contemporaneous | 2011–2017 | 2001–2019 | |||||
PIAAC | OECD | ILO | OECD | ILO | OECD | ILO | |
\(\lambda _i\) (log-risk of exiting unemployment) | |||||||
Numeracy (std) | \({1}.{022}^{***}\) | 0.336 | 0.128 | 0.183 | − 0.155 | − 0.194 | − 0.476 |
(0.354) | (0.560) | (0.560) | (0.503) | (0.515) | (0.456) | (0.468) | |
Logarithmized GDP per capita (PPP) | 0.546 | − 0.159 | 0.001 | − 0.319 | − 0.297 | − 0.111 | − 0.071 |
(0.479) | (0.595) | (0.595) | (0.535) | (0.547) | (0.484) | (0.497) | |
Employment in public sector (share) | \({-4}.{015}^{***}\) | \({-4}.{296}^{**}\) | \({-3}.{969}^{*}\) | \({-3}.{405}^{*}\) | -2.924 | \({-3}.{617}^{**}\) | \({-3}.{234}^{*}\) |
(1.352) | (2.062) | (2.062) | (1.852) | (1.896) | (1.678) | (1.722) | |
ICT in the workplace (std) | \({1}.{104}^{**}\) | \({2}.{680}^{***}\) | \({2}.{920}^{***}\) | \({2}.{653}^{***}\) | \({3}.{078}^{***}\) | \({2}.{316}^{***}\) | \({2}.{696}^{***}\) |
(0.563) | (0.863) | (0.863) | (0.775) | (0.793) | (0.702) | (0.721) | |
Minimum relative to median wage | 1.777 | 2.900 | 2.740 | 2.368 | 2.302 | 1.457 | 1.501 |
(1.155) | (1.788) | (1.788) | (1.606) | (1.643) | (1.454) | (1.493) | |
Trade union density | 0.040 | 0.115 | 0.134 | − 0.172 | − 0.071 | 0.300 | 0.363 |
(0.543) | (0.834) | (0.834) | (0.749) | (0.766) | (0.678) | (0.696) | |
Unemployment benefits (level) | 0.185 | − 0.599 | − 0.726 | − 0.447 | − 0.697 | − 0.511 | − 0.751 |
(0.664) | (1.046) | (1.046) | (0.939) | (0.961) | (0.851) | (0.873) | |
Unemployment benefits (degression) | \({1}.{110}^{*}\) | \({1}.{493}^{**}\) | \({1}.{662}^{**}\) | \({1}.{351}^{**}\) | \({1}.{510}^{**}\) | 0.850 | \({1}.{043}^{*}\) |
(0.581) | (0.725) | (0.725) | (0.651) | (0.667) | (0.590) | (0.606) | |
Employment protection (regular) | \({-0}.{273}^{*}\) | \({-0}.{361}^{*}\) | \({-0}.{376}^{*}\) | \({-0}.{384}^{**}\) | \({-0}.{359}^{*}\) | \({-0}.{401}^{**}\) | \({-0}.{385}^{**}\) |
(0.166) | (0.209) | (0.209) | (0.188) | (0.192) | (0.170) | (0.175) | |
Employment protection (temporary) | \({0}.{152}^{*}\) | \({0}.{240}^{*}\) | \({0}.{252}^{*}\) | 0.193 | \({0}.{217}^{*}\) | \({0}.{191}^{*}\) | \({0}.{217}^{*}\) |
(0.089) | (0.138) | (0.138) | (0.124) | (0.127) | (0.112) | (0.115) | |
\(R^2\) (\(\lambda _0^c\)) | 0.674 | 0.526 | 0.567 | 0.573 | 0.601 | 0.599 | 0.628 |
Observations | 25 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
\(\delta _i\) (log-risk of entering unemployment) | |||||||
Numeracy (std) | \({-1}.{237}^{***}\) | \({-1}.{294}^{***}\) | \({-1}.{481}^{***}\) | \({-1}.{254}^{***}\) | \({-1}.{570}^{***}\) | \({-0}.{789}^{*}\) | \({-1}.{069}^{**}\) |
(0.287) | (0.400) | (0.436) | (0.409) | (0.463) | (0.446) | (0.481) | |
Logarithmized GDP per capita (PPP) | \({-0}.{785}^{**}\) | \({-0}.{718}^{*}\) | − 0.736 | − 0.488 | − 0.514 | − 0.352 | − 0.349 |
(0.389) | (0.426) | (0.463) | (0.434) | (0.492) | (0.474) | (0.511) | |
Employment in public sector (share) | − 0.804 | − 1.228 | − 1.119 | − 1.384 | − 1.059 | − 0.764 | − 0.488 |
(1.097) | (1.474) | (1.604) | (1.505) | (1.705) | (1.643) | (1.770) | |
ICT in the workplace (std) | 0.322 | 0.553 | 0.877 | 0.691 | \({1}.{270}^{*}\) | 0.399 | 0.833 |
(0.456) | (0.617) | (0.671) | (0.630) | (0.713) | (0.688) | (0.741) | |
Minimum relative to median wage | − 1.041 | − 0.385 | − 0.433 | 0.079 | 0.096 | 0.785 | 0.831 |
(0.937) | (1.278) | (1.390) | (1.305) | (1.478) | (1.424) | (1.535) | |
Trade union density | 0.078 | \({1}.{207}^{**}\) | \({1}.{327}^{**}\) | \({1}.{371}^{**}\) | \({1}.{429}^{**}\) | 0.895 | 0.948 |
(0.440) | (0.596) | (0.648) | (0.608) | (0.689) | (0.664) | (0.716) | |
Unemployment benefits (level) | 0.843 | 0.163 | 0.022 | − 0.272 | − 0.570 | − 0.418 | − 0.615 |
(0.538) | (0.747) | (0.813) | (0.763) | (0.864) | (0.833) | (0.898) | |
Unemployment benefits (degression) | − 0.756 | − 0.090 | − 0.027 | 0.089 | 0.375 | 0.552 | 0.769 |
(0.471) | (0.518) | (0.564) | (0.529) | (0.599) | (0.578) | (0.622) | |
Employment protection (regular) | − 0.016 | \({-0}.{298}^{**}\) | \({-0}.{268}^{*}\) | \({-0}.{274}^{*}\) | − 0.243 | \({-0}.{378}^{**}\) | \({-0}.{375}^{**}\) |
(0.134) | (0.150) | (0.163) | (0.153) | (0.173) | (0.167) | (0.180) | |
Employment protection (temporary) | 0.062 | 0.100 | 0.112 | \({0}.{175}^{*}\) | \({0}.{215}^{*}\) | 0.144 | 0.175 |
(0.072) | (0.098) | (0.107) | (0.101) | (0.114) | (0.110) | (0.118) | |
\(R^2\) (\(\delta _0^c\)) | 0.662 | 0.603 | 0.580 | 0.536 | 0.543 | 0.442 | 0.475 |
Observations | 25 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
\(\lambda _i-\delta _i\) (log-risk-ratio of exiting to entering unemployment) | |||||||
Numeracy (std) | \({2}.{258}^{***}\) | \({1}.{630}^{***}\) | \({1}.{609}^{***}\) | \({1}.{437}^{***}\) | \({1}.{415}^{***}\) | \({0}.{595}^{**}\) | \({0}.{593}^{**}\) |
(0.399) | (0.362) | (0.357) | (0.373) | (0.376) | (0.289) | (0.292) | |
Logarithmized GDP per capita (PPP) | \({1}.{331}^{**}\) | 0.559 | \({0}.{737}^{*}\) | 0.169 | 0.216 | 0.242 | 0.277 |
(0.540) | (0.385) | (0.379) | (0.396) | (0.400) | (0.308) | (0.310) | |
Employment in public sector (share) | \({-3}.{211}^{**}\) | \({-3}.{068}^{**}\) | \({-2}.{850}^{**}\) | − 2.021 | − 1.865 | \({-2}.{853}^{***}\) | \({-2}.{746}^{**}\) |
(1.524) | (1.335) | (1.314) | (1.373) | (1.386) | (1.066) | (1.074) | |
ICT in the workplace (std) | 0.782 | \({2}.{127}^{***}\) | \({2}.{043}^{***}\) | \({1}.{962}^{***}\) | \({1}.{808}^{***}\) | \({1}.{917}^{***}\) | \({1}.{863}^{***}\) |
(0.634) | (0.559) | (0.550) | (0.575) | (0.580) | (0.446) | (0.449) | |
Minimum relative to median wage | \({2}.{818}^{**}\) | \({3}.{285}^{***}\) | \({3}.{173}^{***}\) | \({2}.{289}^{*}\) | \({2}.{206}^{*}\) | 0.672 | 0.670 |
(1.302) | (1.157) | (1.139) | (1.191) | (1.202) | (0.924) | (0.931) | |
Trade union density | − 0.038 | \({-1}.{092}^{**}\) | \({-1}.{193}^{**}\) | \({-1}.{543}^{***}\) | \({-1}.{499}^{***}\) | − 0.595 | − 0.585 |
(0.612) | (0.540) | (0.531) | (0.555) | (0.560) | (0.431) | (0.434) | |
Unemployment benefits (level) | − 0.658 | − 0.762 | − 0.748 | − 0.176 | − 0.127 | − 0.093 | − 0.136 |
(0.748) | (0.677) | (0.666) | (0.696) | (0.703) | (0.540) | (0.544) | |
Unemployment benefits (degression) | \({1}.{866}^{***}\) | \({1}.{583}^{***}\) | \({1}.{690}^{***}\) | \({1}.{262}^{***}\) | \({1}.{135}^{**}\) | 0.298 | 0.273 |
(0.654) | (0.469) | (0.462) | (0.483) | (0.487) | (0.375) | (0.377) | |
Employment protection (regular) | − 0.258 | − 0.063 | − 0.108 | − 0.111 | − 0.116 | − 0.023 | − 0.011 |
(0.187) | (0.135) | (0.133) | (0.139) | (0.141) | (0.108) | (0.109) | |
Employment protection (temporary) | 0.091 | 0.140 | 0.140 | 0.018 | 0.002 | 0.047 | 0.042 |
(0.100) | (0.089) | (0.088) | (0.092) | (0.093) | (0.071) | (0.072) | |
\(R^2\) (\(\lambda _0^c-\delta _0^c\)) | 0.810 | 0.831 | 0.836 | 0.821 | 0.817 | 0.892 | 0.890 |
Observations | 25 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |