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Table 6 Country-level estimates of the effects of the displayed variables on the risks of exiting unemployment and of entering unemployment in a seemingly unrelated regressions setup à la Zellner (1962)

From: A cross-country study of skills and unemployment flows

 

Monthly unemployment

Out of steady state

  

Contemporaneous

2011–2017

2001–2019

 

PIAAC

OECD

ILO

OECD

ILO

OECD

ILO

 

\(\lambda _i\) (log-risk of exiting unemployment)

Numeracy (std)

\({1}.{022}^{***}\)

0.336

0.128

0.183

− 0.155

− 0.194

− 0.476

 

(0.354)

(0.560)

(0.560)

(0.503)

(0.515)

(0.456)

(0.468)

Logarithmized GDP per capita (PPP)

0.546

− 0.159

0.001

− 0.319

− 0.297

− 0.111

− 0.071

 

(0.479)

(0.595)

(0.595)

(0.535)

(0.547)

(0.484)

(0.497)

Employment in public sector (share)

\({-4}.{015}^{***}\)

\({-4}.{296}^{**}\)

\({-3}.{969}^{*}\)

\({-3}.{405}^{*}\)

-2.924

\({-3}.{617}^{**}\)

\({-3}.{234}^{*}\)

 

(1.352)

(2.062)

(2.062)

(1.852)

(1.896)

(1.678)

(1.722)

ICT in the workplace (std)

\({1}.{104}^{**}\)

\({2}.{680}^{***}\)

\({2}.{920}^{***}\)

\({2}.{653}^{***}\)

\({3}.{078}^{***}\)

\({2}.{316}^{***}\)

\({2}.{696}^{***}\)

 

(0.563)

(0.863)

(0.863)

(0.775)

(0.793)

(0.702)

(0.721)

Minimum relative to median wage

1.777

2.900

2.740

2.368

2.302

1.457

1.501

 

(1.155)

(1.788)

(1.788)

(1.606)

(1.643)

(1.454)

(1.493)

Trade union density

0.040

0.115

0.134

− 0.172

− 0.071

0.300

0.363

 

(0.543)

(0.834)

(0.834)

(0.749)

(0.766)

(0.678)

(0.696)

Unemployment benefits (level)

0.185

− 0.599

− 0.726

− 0.447

− 0.697

− 0.511

− 0.751

 

(0.664)

(1.046)

(1.046)

(0.939)

(0.961)

(0.851)

(0.873)

Unemployment benefits (degression)

\({1}.{110}^{*}\)

\({1}.{493}^{**}\)

\({1}.{662}^{**}\)

\({1}.{351}^{**}\)

\({1}.{510}^{**}\)

0.850

\({1}.{043}^{*}\)

 

(0.581)

(0.725)

(0.725)

(0.651)

(0.667)

(0.590)

(0.606)

Employment protection (regular)

\({-0}.{273}^{*}\)

\({-0}.{361}^{*}\)

\({-0}.{376}^{*}\)

\({-0}.{384}^{**}\)

\({-0}.{359}^{*}\)

\({-0}.{401}^{**}\)

\({-0}.{385}^{**}\)

 

(0.166)

(0.209)

(0.209)

(0.188)

(0.192)

(0.170)

(0.175)

Employment protection (temporary)

\({0}.{152}^{*}\)

\({0}.{240}^{*}\)

\({0}.{252}^{*}\)

0.193

\({0}.{217}^{*}\)

\({0}.{191}^{*}\)

\({0}.{217}^{*}\)

 

(0.089)

(0.138)

(0.138)

(0.124)

(0.127)

(0.112)

(0.115)

\(R^2\) (\(\lambda _0^c\))

0.674

0.526

0.567

0.573

0.601

0.599

0.628

Observations

25

27

27

27

27

27

27

 

\(\delta _i\) (log-risk of entering unemployment)

Numeracy (std)

\({-1}.{237}^{***}\)

\({-1}.{294}^{***}\)

\({-1}.{481}^{***}\)

\({-1}.{254}^{***}\)

\({-1}.{570}^{***}\)

\({-0}.{789}^{*}\)

\({-1}.{069}^{**}\)

 

(0.287)

(0.400)

(0.436)

(0.409)

(0.463)

(0.446)

(0.481)

Logarithmized GDP per capita (PPP)

\({-0}.{785}^{**}\)

\({-0}.{718}^{*}\)

− 0.736

− 0.488

− 0.514

− 0.352

− 0.349

 

(0.389)

(0.426)

(0.463)

(0.434)

(0.492)

(0.474)

(0.511)

Employment in public sector (share)

− 0.804

− 1.228

− 1.119

− 1.384

− 1.059

− 0.764

− 0.488

 

(1.097)

(1.474)

(1.604)

(1.505)

(1.705)

(1.643)

(1.770)

ICT in the workplace (std)

0.322

0.553

0.877

0.691

\({1}.{270}^{*}\)

0.399

0.833

 

(0.456)

(0.617)

(0.671)

(0.630)

(0.713)

(0.688)

(0.741)

Minimum relative to median wage

− 1.041

− 0.385

− 0.433

0.079

0.096

0.785

0.831

 

(0.937)

(1.278)

(1.390)

(1.305)

(1.478)

(1.424)

(1.535)

Trade union density

0.078

\({1}.{207}^{**}\)

\({1}.{327}^{**}\)

\({1}.{371}^{**}\)

\({1}.{429}^{**}\)

0.895

0.948

 

(0.440)

(0.596)

(0.648)

(0.608)

(0.689)

(0.664)

(0.716)

Unemployment benefits (level)

0.843

0.163

0.022

− 0.272

− 0.570

− 0.418

− 0.615

 

(0.538)

(0.747)

(0.813)

(0.763)

(0.864)

(0.833)

(0.898)

Unemployment benefits (degression)

− 0.756

− 0.090

− 0.027

0.089

0.375

0.552

0.769

 

(0.471)

(0.518)

(0.564)

(0.529)

(0.599)

(0.578)

(0.622)

Employment protection (regular)

− 0.016

\({-0}.{298}^{**}\)

\({-0}.{268}^{*}\)

\({-0}.{274}^{*}\)

− 0.243

\({-0}.{378}^{**}\)

\({-0}.{375}^{**}\)

 

(0.134)

(0.150)

(0.163)

(0.153)

(0.173)

(0.167)

(0.180)

Employment protection (temporary)

0.062

0.100

0.112

\({0}.{175}^{*}\)

\({0}.{215}^{*}\)

0.144

0.175

 

(0.072)

(0.098)

(0.107)

(0.101)

(0.114)

(0.110)

(0.118)

\(R^2\) (\(\delta _0^c\))

0.662

0.603

0.580

0.536

0.543

0.442

0.475

Observations

25

27

27

27

27

27

27

 

\(\lambda _i-\delta _i\) (log-risk-ratio of exiting to entering unemployment)

Numeracy (std)

\({2}.{258}^{***}\)

\({1}.{630}^{***}\)

\({1}.{609}^{***}\)

\({1}.{437}^{***}\)

\({1}.{415}^{***}\)

\({0}.{595}^{**}\)

\({0}.{593}^{**}\)

 

(0.399)

(0.362)

(0.357)

(0.373)

(0.376)

(0.289)

(0.292)

Logarithmized GDP per capita (PPP)

\({1}.{331}^{**}\)

0.559

\({0}.{737}^{*}\)

0.169

0.216

0.242

0.277

 

(0.540)

(0.385)

(0.379)

(0.396)

(0.400)

(0.308)

(0.310)

Employment in public sector (share)

\({-3}.{211}^{**}\)

\({-3}.{068}^{**}\)

\({-2}.{850}^{**}\)

− 2.021

− 1.865

\({-2}.{853}^{***}\)

\({-2}.{746}^{**}\)

 

(1.524)

(1.335)

(1.314)

(1.373)

(1.386)

(1.066)

(1.074)

ICT in the workplace (std)

0.782

\({2}.{127}^{***}\)

\({2}.{043}^{***}\)

\({1}.{962}^{***}\)

\({1}.{808}^{***}\)

\({1}.{917}^{***}\)

\({1}.{863}^{***}\)

 

(0.634)

(0.559)

(0.550)

(0.575)

(0.580)

(0.446)

(0.449)

Minimum relative to median wage

\({2}.{818}^{**}\)

\({3}.{285}^{***}\)

\({3}.{173}^{***}\)

\({2}.{289}^{*}\)

\({2}.{206}^{*}\)

0.672

0.670

 

(1.302)

(1.157)

(1.139)

(1.191)

(1.202)

(0.924)

(0.931)

Trade union density

− 0.038

\({-1}.{092}^{**}\)

\({-1}.{193}^{**}\)

\({-1}.{543}^{***}\)

\({-1}.{499}^{***}\)

− 0.595

− 0.585

 

(0.612)

(0.540)

(0.531)

(0.555)

(0.560)

(0.431)

(0.434)

Unemployment benefits (level)

− 0.658

− 0.762

− 0.748

− 0.176

− 0.127

− 0.093

− 0.136

 

(0.748)

(0.677)

(0.666)

(0.696)

(0.703)

(0.540)

(0.544)

Unemployment benefits (degression)

\({1}.{866}^{***}\)

\({1}.{583}^{***}\)

\({1}.{690}^{***}\)

\({1}.{262}^{***}\)

\({1}.{135}^{**}\)

0.298

0.273

 

(0.654)

(0.469)

(0.462)

(0.483)

(0.487)

(0.375)

(0.377)

Employment protection (regular)

− 0.258

− 0.063

− 0.108

− 0.111

− 0.116

− 0.023

− 0.011

 

(0.187)

(0.135)

(0.133)

(0.139)

(0.141)

(0.108)

(0.109)

Employment protection (temporary)

0.091

0.140

0.140

0.018

0.002

0.047

0.042

 

(0.100)

(0.089)

(0.088)

(0.092)

(0.093)

(0.071)

(0.072)

\(R^2\) (\(\lambda _0^c-\delta _0^c\))

0.810

0.831

0.836

0.821

0.817

0.892

0.890

Observations

25

27

27

27

27

27

27

  1. Sample restricted to survey participants ages 25–54 and excluding survey participants from Indonesia, Ecuador, Peru, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Chile and Turkey. Fixed effects by round of data collection and minimum-wage regulation not displayed. Sampling weights employed in all calculations. Standard errors in parentheses. Statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent level denoted by \(^*\), \(^{**}\), and \(^{***}\), respectively. Author’s calculations based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), the Penn World Table 9.1 (Feenstra et al. 2015), OECD statistics (https://stats.oecd.org/) and ILO statistics (https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/)