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Journal for Labour Market Research
Fig. 4 | Journal for Labour Market Research

Fig. 4

From: Forecasting the unemployment rate using the degree of agreement in consumer unemployment expectations

Fig. 4

Unemployment forecasts—ARIMA vs. ARIMAX. The red line represents the evolution of the unemployment rate in each country, the blue line the forecasts of the unemployment rate, and the vertical green segments the 95% confidence interval of the out-of-sample predictions. ARIMAX stands for the augmented ARIMA model including as a predictor the consensus-based unemployment indicator proposed by Claveria (2019)

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