Welfare receipt misreporting in survey data and its consequences for state dependence estimates: new insights from linked administrative and survey data

Journal for Labour Market Research

Table 8 Average partial effects of lagged labour market state on the probability to be in a given state in t

	Welfare receipt	Welfare and employment	Inactivity	Employment
Panel A: PASS survey data
Welfare receipt in t−1	0.4228***	0.0884***	0.0240**	− 0.535***
Welfare receipt in t−1	[0.3867; 0.4590]	[0.0696; 0.1073]	[0.0058; 0.0422]	[− 0.5757; − 0.4948]
Welfare and Employment in t−1	0.1192***	0.3484***	− 0.0237***	− 0.444***
Welfare and Employment in t−1	[0.0985; 0.1400]	[0.3130; 0.3838]	[− 0.0377; − 0.0098]	[− 0.4818; − 0.4059]
Inactivity in t−1	0.1162***	0.0022	0.2752***	− 0.394***
Inactivity in t−1	[0.0925; 0.1400]	[− 0.0127; 0.0171]	[0.2351; 0.3152]	[− 0.4345; − 0.3527]
Panel B: administrative data
Welfare receipt in t−1	0.4543***	0.1189***	0.0077	− 0.581***
Welfare receipt in t−1	[0.4149; 0.4938]	[0.0976; 0.1402]	[− 0.0104; 0.0258]	[− 0.6242; − 0.5378]
Welfare and Employment in t−1	0.1307***	0.3550***	− 0.0361***	− 0.450***
Welfare and Employment in t−1	[0.1100; 0.1513]	[0.3193; 0.3907]	[− 0.0490; − 0.0231]	[− 0.4890; − 0.4102]
Inactivity in t−1	0.1021***	0.0070	0.3087***	− 0.418***
Inactivity in t−1	[0.0774; 0.1268]	[− 0.0092; 0.0231]	[0.2663; 0.3511]	[− 0.4604; − 0.3752]

Average partial effects based on coefficients shown in Appendix: Tables 10 and 11 are depicted in the first rows. Second rows show the 95% confidence interval in brackets using clustered standard errors at the individual level. Base category: Employment in t−1. ***/**/* denote statistical significance at the 0.001, 0.01, 0.05 levels, respectively. Average partial effects of other explanatory variables can be found in Appendix: Tables 13 and 14
Source: PASS_0614_v1 & LHG V08.01.00 – 201504