Table 14 Average partial effects of all explanatory variables on the probability to be in a given state in t (administrative data)

Benefit receipt in t−1

0.4543***

0.0201

0.1189***

0.0109

0.0077

0.0092

− 0.5810***

0.0220

Benefit receipt and employment in t−1

0.1307***

0.0105

0.3550***

0.0182

− 0.0361***

0.0066

− 0.4496***

0.0201

Inactivity in t−1

0.1021***

0.0126

0.0070

0.0082

0.3087***

0.0216

− 0.4178***

0.0217

Benefit receipt in t0

0.0892***

0.0104

0.0154

0.0091

0.0366***

0.0073

− 0.1412***

0.0131

Benefit receipt and employment in t0

0.0208*

0.0100

0.0683***

0.0100

0.0050

0.0066

− 0.0941***

0.0120

Inactivity in t0

0.0416***

0.0114

− 0.0093

0.0105

0.0654***

0.0073

− 0.0977***

0.0114

Population sample

− 0.0181**

0.0066

− 0.0309***

0.0067

0.0000

0.0047

0.0490***

0.0072

Age (in years)

− 0.0001

0.0003

0.0012***

0.0003

0.0001

0.0002

− 0.0012***

0.0003

Male

0.0161***

0.0043

− 0.0100*

0.0042

− 0.0281***

0.0033

0.0220***

0.0046

Intermediate education

− 0.0257***

0.0045

− 0.0012

0.0044

− 0.0025

0.0038

0.0293***

0.0052

High education

− 0.0391***

0.0074

− 0.0115

0.0069

− 0.0067

0.0051

0.0573***

0.0074

Health restriction

0.0393***

0.0076

− 0.0197**

0.0069

0.0086

0.0066

− 0.0282**

0.0087

Migration Background

− 0.0029

0.0049

0.0087

0.0047

0.0097*

0.0042

− 0.0155**

0.0056

Partner in same HH

− 0.0603***

0.0148

− 0.0188

0.0143

0.0174

0.0130

0.0617***

0.0180

Child < 2 years old

0.0487***

0.0145

− 0.0205

0.0138

0.0691***

0.0142

− 0.0973***

0.0151

Child 2–3 years old

0.0076

0.0130

0.0113

0.0139

0.0042

0.0079

− 0.0231*

0.0115

Child 4–6 years old

− 0.0092

0.0113

0.0258*

0.0122

− 0.0092

0.0065

− 0.0073

0.0101

Child 7–16 years old

0.0023

0.0112

0.0201

0.0109

− 0.0129

0.0069

− 0.0095

0.0103

Regional unemployment rate

0.0018

0.0017

0.0020

0.0017

0.0024

0.0014

− 0.0062**

0.0020

Eastern Germany

0.0045

0.0632

0.0579

0.0501

− 0.0400

0.0319

− 0.0223

0.0592

M: Health restriction

0.0239**

0.0090

− 0.0032

0.0089

0.0173*

0.0077

− 0.0380***

0.0107

M: Partner in same HH

0.0177

0.0142

0.0016

0.0141

0.0061

0.0130

− 0.0254

0.0169

M: Child < 2 years old

0.0008

0.0219

0.0035

0.0232

0.0164

0.0155

− 0.0206

0.0248

M: Child 2–3 years old

0.0089

0.0191

− 0.0055

0.0192

0.0024

0.0133

− 0.0058

0.0198

M: Child 4–6 years old

0.0188

0.0147

− 0.0190

0.0146

0.0049

0.0104

− 0.0047

0.0147

M: Child 7–16 years old

− 0.0058

0.0121

− 0.0023

0.0116

0.0033

0.0083

0.0048

0.0118

M: Regional unemployment rate

0.0018

0.0016

− 0.0005

0.0016

− 0.0019

0.0014

0.0006

0.0019

M: Eastern Germany

− 0.0061

0.0604

− 0.0548

0.0443

0.0320

0.0363

0.0289

0.0591

Wave 4

0.0060

0.0066

0.0148*

0.0065

− 0.0075

0.0056

− 0.0133

0.0075

Wave 5

− 0.0017

0.0067

− 0.0029

0.0065

− 0.0055

0.0058

0.0102

0.0076

Wave 6

0.0037

0.0071

0.0060

0.0069

− 0.0128*

0.0058

0.0030

0.0078

Wave 7

0.0080

0.0067

0.0046

0.0066

− 0.0058

0.0057

− 0.0068

0.0075

Wave 8

0.0058

0.0069

0.0028

0.0068

− 0.0078

0.0058

− 0.0008

0.0077