Table 3 Complementary log-log model to estimate the return probability – initial model. (Source: NEPS 1.0.0 2011, SIAB weakly anonymous version 7510 & Microcensus, own calculations)
Covariate | Initial model |
|---|---|
AME | |
Time interval | |
0–1 month | −0.060*** (0.005) |
2–6 months | −0.098*** (0.006) |
7–12 months | −0.084*** (0.005) |
13–24 months | −0.088*** (0.005) |
25–36 months | −0.070*** (0.005) |
More than 36 months | −0.084*** (0.006) |
Control variables | |
Employment experience in years | −0.001+ (0.001) |
Employment experience in years, squared | 0.000+ (0.000) |
Education (reference with vocational training) | |
Without vocational training | 0.001 (0.003) |
University/university of applied sciences degree | 0.012*** (0.003) |
Migration background | 0.001 (0.003) |
Married | −0.009*** (0.002) |
Pregnant with second child | −0.003 (0.003) |
Management position in pre-leave job | 0.000 (0.002) |
Pre-leave job in public service | 0.002 (0.002) |
Part-time work (<20 h a week) in pre-leave job | 0.003 (0.004) |
Parental benefit regulation: Births from 2007 onwards | −0.012* (0.005) |
Childcare rate (in %) | 0.001*** (0.000) |
N observations | 26,186 |
N persons | 1073 |
N events | 560 |
AIC | 5199.8 |
BIC | 5346.9 |