Table 6 Results of main estimation and sensitivity analysis—ATET.

Panel A: Baseline

0.057**

5.089**

5.303**

0.213

0.063

0.126**

(0.028)

(2.382)

(2.580)

(0.790)

(0.048)

(0.063)

N

11,640

3505

3505

3505

3505

3505

Relative effect size (compared to pre-reform mean)

0.164

0.200

0.197

0.146

0.182

0.268

Panel B: Common trend

Placebo reform

− 0.007

− 0.687

0.127

0.814

− 0.031

0.008

(0.032)

(2.417)

(2.006)

(0.605)

(0.048)

(0.067)

N

11,307

3638

3638

3638

3638

3638

Panel C: Sample composition

Median division

0.069***

3.823**

4.130**

0.307

0.027

0.119**

(0.023)

(1.929)

(2.006)

(0.403)

(0.037)

(0.050)

N

16,203

5113

5113

5113

5113

5113

\(post=2014\)

0.057**

3.263

3.360

0.097

0.037

0.090

(0.025)

(2.179)

(2.247)

(0.380)

(0.044)

(0.055)

N

15,919

5142

5142

5142

5142

5142

Panel D: Sample composition

West Germany

0.066*

5.316*

6.562**

1.246

0.025

0.184**

(0.038)

(3.027)

(3.268)

(0.865)

(0.058)

(0.080)

N

10,618

3196

3196

3196

3196

3196

Without under 1-year-olds

0.110***

6.621***

6.087**

− 0.534

0.097*

0.142**

(0.039)

(2.460)

(2.564)

(0.647)

(0.051)

(0.068)

N

7695

3001

3001

3001

3001

3001

Without childminders

0.052*

4.503*

4.687*

0.184

0.058

0.111*

(0.029)

(2.491)

(2.700)

(0.767)

(0.051)

(0.065)

N

11,438

3441

3441

3441

3441

3441

Without families having moved

0.066**

5.401**

6.186**

0.785

0.054

0.163**

(0.030)

(2.521)

(2.743)

(0.791)

(0.053)

(0.068)

N

10,330

3177

3177

3177

3177

3177